Journal article, February 2026 Open access
Temporal machine learning framework for diabetic foot ulcer healing trajectory prediction
BioMedical Engineering OnLine, 25(1), 41. DOI 10.1186/s12938-026-01529-2
In brief
Wound care is mostly reactive: treatment changes after a wound has already stalled. This framework looks one appointment ahead. Using only the clinical notes clinics already record, with no imaging, it predicts whether a diabetic foot ulcer will move in a favourable, acceptable or unfavourable direction by the next visit, and pairs that forecast with treatment suggestions.
Key findings
- 78% accuracy and an average AUC of 0.90 for next-visit trajectory, validated at the patient level
- A feature set cut by about 70% to 30 predictors, led by the wound's healing history
- Offloading recommendations matched clinicians 88.7% of the time; dressing advice was strongest for acute wounds and, as expected, weakest for the most chronic ones