Reza Basiri

Research

Journal article, February 2026 Open access

Temporal machine learning framework for diabetic foot ulcer healing trajectory prediction

Reza Basiri, Asem Saleh, Shehroz S. Khan, Milos R. Popovic

BioMedical Engineering OnLine, 25(1), 41. DOI 10.1186/s12938-026-01529-2

In brief

Wound care is mostly reactive: treatment changes after a wound has already stalled. This framework looks one appointment ahead. Using only the clinical notes clinics already record, with no imaging, it predicts whether a diabetic foot ulcer will move in a favourable, acceptable or unfavourable direction by the next visit, and pairs that forecast with treatment suggestions.

Key findings

  • 78% accuracy and an average AUC of 0.90 for next-visit trajectory, validated at the patient level
  • A feature set cut by about 70% to 30 predictors, led by the wound's healing history
  • Offloading recommendations matched clinicians 88.7% of the time; dressing advice was strongest for acute wounds and, as expected, weakest for the most chronic ones